08-01-2021,01:58 PM #4522
Brian8383
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Credit...Tony Cenicola/The New York TimesBy Aaron E. Carroll
Nov. 5, 2018
Even before the recent news that a group of researchers managed to get several ridiculous fake studies published in reputable academic journals, people have been aware of problems with peer review.
Throwing out the system which deems whether research is robust and worth being published would do more harm than good. But it makes sense to be aware of peer reviews potential weaknesses.
Reviewers may be overworked and underprepared. Although theyre experts in the subject they are reading about, they get no specific training to do peer review, and are rarely paid for it. With 2.5 million peer-reviewed papers published annually worldwide and more that are reviewed but never published it can be hard to find enough people to review all the work.
There is evidence that reviewers are not always consistent. A 1982 paper describes a study in which two researchers selected 12 articles already accepted by highly regarded journals, swapped the real names and academic affiliations for false ones, and resubmitted the identical material to the same journals that had already accepted them in the previous 18 to 32 months. Only 8 percent of editors or reviewers noticed the duplication, and three papers were detected and pulled. Of the nine papers that continued through the review process, eight were turned down, with 89 percent of reviewers recommending rejection.
Peer review may be inhibiting innovation. It takes significant reviewer agreement to have a paper accepted. One potential downside is that important research bucking a trend or overturning accepted wisdom may face challenges surviving peer review. In 2015, a study published in P.N.A.S. tracked more than 1,000 manuscripts submitted to three prestigious medical journals. Of the 808 that were published at some point, the 2 percent that were most frequently cited had been rejected by the journals.
An even bigger issue is that peer review may be biased. Reviewers can usually see the names of the authors and their institutions, and multiple studies have shown that reviews preferentially accept or reject articles based on a number of demographic factors. In a study published in eLife last year, researchers created a database consisting of more than 9,000 editors, 43,000 reviewers and 126,000 authors whose work led to about 41,000 articles in 142 journals in a number of domains. They found that women made up only 26 percent of editors, 28 percent of reviewers and 37 percent of authors. Analyses showed that this was not because fewer women were available for each role.
A similar study focusing on earth and space science journals found that women made up only about a quarter of first authors and about 20 percent of reviewers. They had higher acceptance rates than men, though.
In 2012, the journal Nature undertook an internal review of its peer review process, finding balance in its editors and reporters but disparities elsewhere. In 2011, women made up only 14 percent of the more than 5,500 peer reviewers for papers. Only 18 percent of the 34 researchers profiled in 2011-12 were women, and only 19 percent of the articles written for the Comment and World View section were by women.
Its possible women declined opportunities to review, but studies have documented that male editors tend to favor male reviewers. This year, Nature reported that it had increased participation of women in the Comment and World View section to 34 percent, while the percent of reviewers had climbed only to 16 percent.
Unesco estimates that women make up 29 percent of the worldwide science work force.
But there are also data to support the value of peer review. A 1994 study, published in Annals of Internal Medicine, reviewed the quality of papers submitted to the journal before and after the peer review and editorial system. Researchers used a tool that assessed the manuscripts quality on 34 items, and their work showed that all but one got better. The biggest improvements were in the discussion of a studys limitations, its generalizations, its use of confidence intervals and the tone of the conclusions. Probably none of these would have occurred without the nudge of peer review.......
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/upshot/peer-review-the-worst-way-to-judge-research-except-for-all-the-others.html
FAQs
It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun's energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.
Is climate change real and is it happening? ›
The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Do you think the climate is really changing? ›
Over millions of years, Earth's climate has warmed up and cooled down many times. However, today the planet is warming much faster than it has over human history. Global air temperatures near Earth's surface have gone up about 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the last century.
Is the climate change really affects you how? ›
Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity. Climate impacts are already harming health, through air pollution, disease, extreme weather events, forced displacement, pressures on mental health, and increased hunger and poor nutrition in places where people cannot grow or find sufficient food.
Is climate change questions yes or no? ›
Do scientists agree on climate change? Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.
How do we know global warming is real? ›
Many types of instrumental records point to a climate warming trend. Our streamflow records show an earlier peak in spring runoff; borehole temperature records in Alaskan permafrost as well as water temperature records on land and sea show the warming trend.
Has the earth been hotter than it is now? ›
Even after those first scorching millennia, however, the planet has often been much warmer than it is now. One of the warmest times was during the geologic period known as the Neoproterozoic, between 600 and 800 million years ago. Conditions were also frequently sweltering between 500 million and 250 million years ago.
Why do scientists disagree about global warming? ›
# Fundamental uncertainties arise from insufficient observational evidence, disagreements over how to interpret data, and how to set the parameters of models. # IPCC, created to find and disseminate research finding a human impact on global climate, is not a credible source.
What is the main driver of climate change? ›
But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun's heat and raising temperatures.
Is the climate of the whole earth really changing? ›
Over the course of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot, this is true. However, the rapid warming we're seeing now can't be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen over hundreds of thousands of years are happening in decades.
The heat content of the ocean has increased. Global average sea level has risen by approximately 16 cm (6 inches) since 1901, due both to the expansion of warmer ocean water and to the addition of melt waters from glaciers and ice sheets on land.
How will the earth be in 50 years? ›
The world in 50 years
By the time today's Tiktok user is old enough to see the artificially aged version of their face come to fruition, the world will look very different if nothing is done to address climate change. The planet is on track for catastrophic warming, U.N.'s 2023 climate change report says.
How bad is climate change in 2024? ›
Atmospheric CO₂ levels reached an all-time high in May 2024
At that time, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 313 parts per million, slightly higher than in the 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution sparked the widespread consumption of fossil fuels.
Is there any truth to climate change? ›
It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun's energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.
Is climate change supposed to happen? ›
Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, higher sea levels, and larger changes in precipitation patterns. The extent of future climate change depends on what we do now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Is climate change a real problem? ›
Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people's livelihoods and communities.
Is climate change real or is it a cycle? ›
Over the course of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot, this is true. However, the rapid warming we're seeing now can't be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen over hundreds of thousands of years are happening in decades.
How do we know that humans are causing climate change? ›
Human Activity Is the Cause of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. Over the last century, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This increase happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2.
What truly is climate change? ›
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun's activity or large volcanic eruptions.
Will climate change affect us in 2050? ›
Climate change is expected to have a huge impact on millions of lives & economy by 2050. Here are the 3 types of climate disasters that will cause the greatest loss.
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